There are currently a lot of new airports under construction. When completed, these will dramatically change the landscape of the current big global airports – and as a consequence, how we travel to intercontinental destinations. Potentially it could even shift where the big commercial centers are located. In this blog I will look at impact of all these expansion plans on the future biggest airports.
Airport Expansion Plans – Europe
There are 4 European airports which have construction works in-progress and/or mid- to long term expansion plans announced. The most ambitious one is the new Istanbul Airport in Turkey.
Istanbul – Turkey; The new airport opened in 2018. Current capacity is 90M passengers. When the next phase completes in 2027, the capacity will be extended to 150M passengers. The ambition doesn’t stop there – there are plans to expand the airport eventually to a capacity of 200M passengers. This is one of the most ambitious plans globally. In 2023, Istanbul airport transported 76.2M passengers.
Baranow County (Warsaw) – Poland; A new airport in Warsaw, Poland is under construction. Planned opening is 2027 with a capacity of 45M passengers. When completed, the airport should have a capacity of 100M passengers. In 2023, the current Warsaw airport transported 18,5M passengers.
Heathrow London – UK; Heathrow is working on their long awaited 3rd runway. Besides adding a new runway, Terminal 3 will make way for new terminal buildings. The planned opening of the 3rd runway is 2026, but the complete expansion including new terminals will be finished in 2050. Future passenger numbers aren’t specified, only the additional expected flights; 260,000 which is roughly an increase of 50%. In 2023, Heathrow transported 79.2M passengers.
Frankfurt – Germany; Frankfurt is building a complete new terminal (T3). This new terminal should be completed in 2025 and should increase the capacity with 19M passengers. When all plans are completed in 2030, total capacity should be 86M passengers. In 2023, Frankfurt transported almost 60M passengers.
Middle East
Saudi Arabia – King Salman International Airport; Plans for a complete new airport in Saudi Arabia have recently been announced. Phase 1 should be completed in 2030 with a planned number of passengers of 120M. Crucial element of the growth plans also includes a complete new airline Riyadh Air. The plans account for a further growth to 185M in 2050.
Dubai – Al Maktoum Airport; Dubai airport is close to its current maximum capacity of 90M passengers. In 2023, the airport transported almost 87M passengers. A big expansion plan has recently been announced. The airport should be expanded to a capacity of 130M passengers by 2030 and eventually to 255M passengers in 2050. By far the most ambitious plan globally and I have no doubt that they will be able to actually transport this number of passengers.
Doha – Qatar & Abu Dhabi; Dubai and Saudi Arabia aren’t the only airports in the area which have big expansion plans. Hamad International Airport in Doha plans to expand to 75M passengers a year. Expansions are completed before 2030. Abu Dhabi is also expanding to 45M passengers in 2024.
Asia
Singapore Changi Airport; Singapore announced plans for a new terminal (T5) and new runway. When completed in the mid 2030’s, capacity should grow to 140M passengers. In 2023, Singapore airport transported almost 60M passengers.
Sangley Point International Airport – Philippines; A new airport is being build which initially should have a capacity of 25M passengers. Planned opening is 2028. Phase 2 calls for an extension to 75M passengers.
Long Tranh International Airport – Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; A new airport, 40 km from Ho Chi Minh City center, is being build. The airport should open in 2025 with a capacity of 25M passengers. There is a planned capacity for up to 100M passengers in 2050.
Top 10 biggest airports 2023
The current top 10 of biggest airports by passenger traffic in 2023, looks like this:
From the current top 10 of biggest airports, a lot of airports are close to their maximum capacity. Dubai’s current maximum capacity is 90M, same as Tokyo Haneda. Istanbul can also grow till 90M passengers, but after 2027, it should have capacity up to 150M!
Atlanta transported 110M passengers in 2019 and that must have been close to the maximum capacity but I wasn’t able to get the current maximum capacity of the US airports.
Chicago O’Hare is undergoing some major renovations which should also increase capacity by 25% in 2032. However, the project is behind schedule, billions over budget and there are still discussions on final design.
Los Angeles International Airport is also undergoing massive renovations. I couldn’t determine though whether this also includes a major capacity extension.
Conclusion
So, how would the top 10 of biggest airports look like in 2030 and beyond. One thing which is clear from the above is that the Middle East airports haven’t finished expanding yet! They are planning massive expansions and for sure the airports of Doha and Dubai will be able to implement that considering their strong home base airlines. Big question mark is whether Saudi Arabia will be able to attract the big number of passengers they are planning for.
The other 2 major airports planning for big expansions are Istanbul and Singapore, both competing directly with the Middle East carriers.
Below graph shows passenger numbers of 2023 compared to 2019. This graph is just re-iterating the global trend. Most European airports have capacity constraints, haven’t recovered from the impact of COVID, and are outpaced by the Middle East airports as well as Istanbul.
Source AGBI
Creating a forecast for airport passengers in 2030-2035 will require some assumptions and a big crystal bal! But what we do know is that growth at European airports will be limited (with the possible exception of Istanbul) and I also believe the same accounts for the US airports. So based on all this, please see my forecast of biggest airports in 2030-2035. Let me know in the comments if you agree!
Also read my blog on biggest airlines in 2023.
Also review my video on Etihad’s Business Class from Abu Dhabi to Amsterdam, leaving from the spectacular new terminal in Abu Dhabi. In this video, I’ll show you the new terminal including the new Etihad Business Class Lounge;
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